Author: Paul Pillar

Let’s Make a Deal with IranBut let’s make it a big one

This article was published in collaboration with POLITICO Magazine.

If there’s a single theme that has dominated American discussions about the nuclear negotiations with Iran, it is damage control. How much can we constrain Iran’s “breakout capacity”—its ability to build a bomb should it renounce a deal down the road? How low a ceiling can we place on the number of centrifuges Iran can have? More broadly, how can we keep Iran from rejoining the world too soon and engaging in normal commerce and collaboration?

Indeed, in some circles, the prospect of a less ostracized Iran is considered a major downside of any nuclear deal—at best a regrettable necessity, at worst reason not to do a deal at all. According to Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon, a deal will just allow Iran to “continue its worldwide terror activities, while it is no longer internationally isolated and its economy has been strengthened.”

These discussions might be moot, of course. With talks fast approaching a July 20 deadline, “very real gaps” remain between the two sides, says Secretary of State John Kerry, despite a reported new offer by Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.

Failure would be very costly, however, and not just because of the nuclear issue.